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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Wegovy ™ for Me, but Not for Thee (cont’d)

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The just-announced trade “deal” (what’s the enforcement mechanism?) apparently covers pharmaceuticals. Where do we get most of our pharma (by value)? From Joey Politano, the answer:

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This entry was posted on July 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

TACO, Again! (China Edition)

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Not that I’m complaining. Continue reading →

This entry was posted on July 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

US Real Exports Flatlining Despite Rising RoW GDP, Depreciated Dollar

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What else did you expect?

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This entry was posted on July 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Betting on 2.5%

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Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus.

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This entry was posted on July 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Where Is the Administration’s Economic Forecast? A Forensic Analysis

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It’s usually in the Mid-Session Review, which comes out in July. But no table of forecasts is included this year (you can check–I did!). Which begs the question — how did they estimate the revenues going forward if they didn’t have GDP projections?

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This entry was posted on July 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Scary Picture?

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Some macro series. One observation does not make a trend – but still…

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This entry was posted on July 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

West Coast Port Traffic Down

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Or at least Long Beach and LA:

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This entry was posted on July 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasts of GDP and “Core GDP”

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As of today, GDP nowcasts split, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (coined “Core GDP” by Furman) consensus is deceleration.

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This entry was posted on July 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Signs of a Slowing Russian Economy: CBR Drops Rate 200 bp

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Three weeks ago, Bofit remarks “Concerns emerge over Russia’s slowing growth”:

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This entry was posted on July 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

What Fed Funds Rate Does Trump Want?

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Compared to Taylor rule, according the to the Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility.

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This entry was posted on July 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • Wegovy ™ for Me, but Not for Thee (cont’d)
  • TACO, Again! (China Edition)
  • US Real Exports Flatlining Despite Rising RoW GDP, Depreciated Dollar
  • Betting on 2.5%
  • Where Is the Administration’s Economic Forecast? A Forensic Analysis

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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